New CRASH Clock Metric Shows Megaconstellations Reduce Collision Recovery Time to 5.5 Days

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5mo ago· 2 min readenInsight

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Summary

Researchers propose a new metric called the CRASH Clock to measure stress on the orbital environment from megaconstellations. The metric calculates the timescale for a possible catastrophic collision if there are no satellite maneuvers or loss of situational awareness. Current calculations show the CRASH Clock is 5.5 days, indicating limited time to recover from disruptive events like solar storms, compared to 164 days in 2018 before megaconstellations became prevalent. The article highlights the risks of space debris, collisions, ground casualty risks, and environmental impacts from satellite operations.

Key quotes

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Our calculations show the CRASH Clock is currently 5.5 days, which suggests there is limited time to recover from a wide-spread disruptive event, such as a solar storm.

This is in stark contrast to the pre-megaconstellation era: in 2018, the CRASH Clock was 164 days.

There is potential for current or planned actions in orbit to cause serious degradation of the orbital environment or lead to catastrophic outcomes, highlighting the urgent need to find better ways to quantify stress on the orbital environment.

While satellites provide many benefits to society, their use comes with challenges, including the growth of space debris, collisions, ground casualty risks, optical and radio-spectrum pollution, and the alteration of Earth's upper atmosphere through rocket emissions and reentry ablation.

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The number of objects in orbit is rapidly increasing, primarily driven by the launch of megaconstellations, an approach to satellite constellation design that involves large numbers of satellites paired with their rapid launch and disposal. While satellit

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