Claude keeps answering the most extreme version of my question

I’ve repeatedly noticed that when using Opus 4.6 for scenario planning and forecasting it models the most extreme version of an outcome, correctly explains why that extreme is unlikely, then applies that low probability to the whole question even when a less extreme version would still resolve the event. In October, I asked an Opus agent whether the US would conduct at least one confirmed drone strike or airstrike inside Venezuela before Dec 31. It gave the scenario a 15% chance. The reasoning relied on Russian-supplied S-300 air defenses, Congressional war powers, regional opposition, and analysts saying troop levels were insufficient for a full-scale invasion. All of those factors were correct, but they were arguments against a major military campaign.  Then on Dec 24 the CIA hit an empty dock with a drone. No one was killed, and the question resolved YES. The 15% forecast was way off, not because the research was bad, but because Opus modeled the dramatic end of the spectrum (invasion) and missed that the question covered a much broader range of possibilities, including something as limited as a symbolic strike on an empty dock. This same failure pattern showed up in other forecasting questions, including an[ Iran nuclear-inspections question](https://futuresearch.ai/blog/agents-catastrophize/#:~:text=whether%20the%20IAEA%20would%20conduct%20any%20safeguards%20inspection%20at%20any%20non%2DBushehr%20Iranian%20facility%20in%20Q4%202025.) and an [Israel-Lebanon direct-talks question.](https://futuresearch.ai/blog/agents-catastrophize/#:~:text=whether%20Israel%20and%20Lebanon%20would%20publicly%20announce%20the%20start%20of%20direct%20bilateral%20negotiations%20by%20December%2031.) What actually improved results was making the range of qualifying outcomes explicit:  *"Consider the full spectrum of outcomes here, from the smallest version that would count to the most extreme, and weight each one. Don't just model the dramatic case."* So instead of asking, "what happens if a competitor enters our market," I write "consider the full range: a quiet pilot, a regional launch, a national rollout, an acquisition, weight each." This shifts the analysis away from a single interpretation and toward the full outcome space. Would be interested in hearing what others are doing to solve this.