Analysis: China's CO2 emissions remain flat or falling for 21 consecutive months
By
Lauri Myllyvirta
5d ago· 16 min readenInsight
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Summary
China's CO2 emissions fell by 1% in Q4 2025, securing a 0.3% decline for the full year, extending a "flat or falling" trend that began in March 2024 and has lasted nearly two years. Fossil fuel emissions increased by an estimated 0.1% in 2025, but this was more than offset by a 7% decline in CO2 from cement production. The analysis implies China's carbon intensity is continuing to decrease.
Key quotes
· 3 pulledChina's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a decline of 0.3% for the full year as a whole.
This extends a 'flat or falling' trend in China's CO2 emissions that began in March 2024 and has now lasted for nearly two years.
In 2025, emissions from fossil fuels increased by an estimated 0.1%, but this was more than offset by a 7% decline in CO2 from cement.
China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a decline of 0.3% for the full year as a whole.
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