Why 2100 Transition Scenarios Must Account for Peak and Plateau Population Trends
By
Michael Barnard
Master baker tier. Every paragraph earns its place on the tray.
Summary
The article argues that 21st-century population projections show a peak, plateau, and regional divergence pattern rather than the continuous doubling seen in the 20th century. It critiques long-range transition scenarios (for energy, climate, infrastructure) that still assume old growth curves, and calls for updated models that reflect slowing global population growth, regional demographic differences, and the implications for sustainability and resource planning by 2100.
Key quotes
· 3 pulledThe 21st-century population story is peak, plateau and divergence, not a second 20th-century-style doubling.
A great deal of long-range thinking still carries the 20th-century population curve forward as if it still defines the future.
Better 2100 transition scenarios need peak, plateau and regional divergence, not old growth curves.
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