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Analyzing Whether Inflation Is Broad-Based or Sector-Specific

By

Claudia Sahm

3h ago· 6 min readenInsight

Summary

This article examines whether high inflation is broad-based or driven by specific sectors. It analyzes the distribution of price changes across categories, looking at trimmed mean and median inflation measures as alternatives to headline CPI. The article explores which sectors are contributing most to inflation and whether the Fed's 2% target is being affected by persistent versus transitory price changes. It evaluates arguments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh about using alternative inflation metrics that strip out one-time price shocks from geopolitics or specific goods like beef.

Key quotes

· 3 pulled
Headline inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, and concerns are mounting that inflation could be persistently elevated unless the Fed tightens monetary policy.
Trimmed means or medians capture the 'underlying inflation rate' and 'not … the one-time change in prices because of a change in geopolitics or a change in beef.'
Before evaluating his claims, it is useful to explore the distribution of inflation and see what appears to be driving inflation.
Snippet from the RSS feed
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh recently argued for alternative ways of looking at inflation, such as trimmed means or medians, which, in his words, capture the “underlying inflation rate” and “not … the one-time change in prices because of a change in geopolitics

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