Analyzing Whether Inflation Is Broad-Based or Sector-Specific
By
Claudia Sahm
Front-window bakery material. Catches the eye, delivers the goods.
Summary
This article examines whether high inflation is broad-based or driven by specific sectors. It analyzes the distribution of price changes across categories, looking at trimmed mean and median inflation measures as alternatives to headline CPI. The article explores which sectors are contributing most to inflation and whether the Fed's 2% target is being affected by persistent versus transitory price changes. It evaluates arguments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh about using alternative inflation metrics that strip out one-time price shocks from geopolitics or specific goods like beef.
Key quotes
· 3 pulledHeadline inflation has been above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, and concerns are mounting that inflation could be persistently elevated unless the Fed tightens monetary policy.
Trimmed means or medians capture the 'underlying inflation rate' and 'not … the one-time change in prices because of a change in geopolitics or a change in beef.'
Before evaluating his claims, it is useful to explore the distribution of inflation and see what appears to be driving inflation.
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